How It Works

LSRI is a structural regime signal. We do not predict price or call exact bottoms. We monitor when market structure shifts from healthy to fragile, then publish a simple regime that is readable in seconds and backed by public proof. LSRI is a structural risk regime index for the crypto market, not a trading indicator.

Quantitative validation Public track record Historical signals View Dashboard Free
The Process
Step 1
Read daily structure
LSRI works on daily market data, not intraday noise. It observes structural deterioration through calibrated price and volume behavior over rolling windows.
input: daily close + volume window: rolling history only goal: detect structural fragility
Step 2
Map to a regime
The raw structural signal is translated into one of four public states so the output remains practical, interpretable, and stable enough for daily monitoring.
NORMAL → VIGILANCE VIGILANCE → STRESS STRESS → CRITICAL
Step 3
Track what follows
We then measure what happened after historical regime transitions. That is why the product links methodology, track record, and backtests together, so the public framework can be checked instead of just believed.
transition date → 7d / 30d forward move → aggregate by asset and regime
Model inputs (conceptual)

LSRI is built on daily market data. At a conceptual level, the model uses inputs such as price structure (how price behaves over rolling windows), volatility (dispersion and regime-conditional behavior), market dynamics (participation and confirmation across time), and liquidity-related signals. These are combined into a structural view - we do not publish the exact formula or weights, but the public methodology describes how regimes are defined, how the score is read, and how the output is used.

Public Regimes
NORMAL
Structurally calm market
Conditions remain broadly healthy. This does not mean “risk-free”, only that LSRI does not currently detect unusual structural stress.
  • Liquidity and behavior remain relatively orderly
  • No elevated warning from the structural engine
  • Default state in stable conditions
VIGILANCE
Instability is building
The market is no longer fully calm. Fragility may be accumulating even if price has not yet seen the sharpest move.
  • Useful early warning state
  • Signals deterioration before full stress
  • Encourages tighter monitoring of exposure
STRESS
High structural risk
Stress means LSRI detects a materially weaker market structure. Historically, this is the area where volatility and downside follow-through become more relevant.
  • Higher probability of unstable price action
  • Focus shifts to risk reduction and discipline
  • Important regime for validation metrics
CRITICAL
Structural breakdown regime
Critical is the highest-alert public state. It reflects severe deterioration in market structure, not a directional forecast or a guaranteed crash.
  • Highest severity in the public model
  • Designed for risk awareness, not prediction theater
  • May persist while conditions remain impaired

Ce que mesure LSRI

LSRI utilise les données quotidiennes de prix et de volume pour calculer l’asymétrie structurelle et la propagation du carry sur le marché. Lorsque ces seuils calibrés sont franchis, le régime passe de Normal → Vigilance → Stress → Critique. Concrètement, cela revient à identifier quand la structure du marché passe d’un état sain à un état fragile. Les mises à jour sont publiées une fois par jour, du lundi au vendredi à 20:00 UTC. Nous nous concentrons sur les régimes structurels, pas sur le bruit intraday ou le storytelling post-hoc.

Comment lire le score LSRI

Le score LSRI est un score d’affichage 0-100. Il indique où l’actif se situe dans la plage structurelle actuelle. Il ne mesure pas le rendement attendu, la probabilité de profit, ni les probabilités exactes de crash.

0-39
Normal zone
The asset is still inside the calm structural range. Lower values mean it sits deeper inside stable conditions.
40-59
Vigilance zone
Early structural tension is building. The market is no longer fully calm, even if price still looks orderly.
60-79
Stress zone
Structural fragility is materially higher. This is where tighter risk control and lower leverage become more relevant.
80-100
Critical zone
The highest public severity range. This reflects structural breakdown conditions, not a guaranteed market outcome.
How To Use LSRI
Use Case 1
Read calm versus deterioration
Start by treating LSRI as a market-structure read, not as a trade trigger. `Normal` and `Vigilance` help frame whether conditions remain broadly stable or whether fragility is starting to build.
  • Use it to read context before increasing risk
  • Watch persistence, not only one isolated state
  • Combine it with your own market process
Use Case 2
Adapt exposure when stress rises
`Stress` and `Critical` are meant to support risk discipline. They are most useful when you need to slow down, review leverage, and question whether the previous regime assumptions still hold.
  • Reduce forced risk before looking for precision
  • Review weaker or higher-beta exposure first
  • Wait for stabilization rather than chasing bottoms
Use Case 3
Know what LSRI does not do
LSRI does not tell you the exact price target, the exact bottom, or the right position size. Its role is to make structural fragility easier to detect and easier to monitor over time.
  • No promise of future returns
  • No automatic buy or sell instruction
  • No claim of perfect timing precision
What LSRI Is And Is Not
What LSRI is

A daily structural monitoring engine built to simplify risk-state reading across major crypto assets and give a public framework users can inspect before trusting it.

  • Daily regime classification
  • Transparent public states
  • Historical validation through stored transitions
  • Useful for exposure monitoring and market context
What LSRI is not

It is not a magic timing model, a black-box signal seller, a bottom-calling tool, or personalized investment advice.

  • No promise of future returns
  • No buy/sell orders
  • No look-ahead bias in the public methodology
  • No hidden AI claim replacing transparent rules

Données et mises à jour

Nous utilisons les clôtures et volumes quotidiens provenant de fournisseurs de données de marché fiables. Les calculs sont réalisés avec une fenêtre glissante ; le signal de chaque jour dépend uniquement des données passées. Il n’y a pas de mises à jour le week-end. Consultez notre page Backtests pour la validation historique.

See historical validation

Review public metrics, follow-through after stress transitions, and recent case examples on the backtests page.

Open backtests →
Explore real transitions

Browse the live public track record with timeline, asset filters, and transition-level returns.

Open track record →