Track Record

Historical LSRI regime transitions and what followed over 7 and 30 trading days. A public proof page — not a price forecast.

Total Transitions
Across tracked assets
Stress / Critical
Share of current view
Avg 7d After Stress
Negative 7d follow-through
Latest Transition
Most recent regime change

Documented stress episodes

The transition table below is fed from the production archive (3,000+ stored regime changes). Use period shortcuts for COVID 2020 and FTX 2022, or open Backtests for curated cycle cards.

March 2020 — COVID shock

BTC fell roughly 50% in days. Mar–Apr 2020 transitions are in the archive when coverage reached that window—filter below or use the COVID period chip.

View BTC transitions (Mar–Apr 2020)

November 2022 — FTX contagion

LSRI flagged structural stress on BTC/ETH before the November washout; SOL stress lead times are detailed in the curated FTX cycle card.

View BTC transitions (Oct–Dec 2022)

2018 bear market

Twelve Data history starts around mid-2019; pre-2019 rows are not in this archive. Curated 2018 stress-before-bottom proof is on Backtests.

See Backtests — 2018 cycle

Illustrative narratives and lead times are not investment advice. The transition table reflects stored regime changes only.

Filter regime transitions
Focus on one asset or isolate Stress and Critical transitions. Stats and table update together.
Period
Asset
Transition type
Regime transitions
Latest LSRI regime changes with 7d and 30d follow-through when history allows.
Date Asset Regime change 7d return 30d return
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Impact of the LSRI risk filter Illustrative

BTC example: reduce exposure when regime is Stress or Critical.

Buy & Hold BTC 210% Max drawdown −73%
BTC with LSRI Risk Filter 168% Max drawdown −32%

Illustrative overlay on BTC. Full validation is in the transition table above.

For full regime history, day-by-day memory and live alerts, open the dashboard.

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LSRI detects when market structure shifts from healthy to fragile. This page is a public transition record, not investment advice.