Historical transitions of LSRI regimes. This page does not predict price or call bottoms. It simply tracks how past LSRI shifts from healthy to fragile structure were followed by market moves over time.
1. Stress spikes – when LSRI moves from Normal or Vigilance into Stress or Critical, the goal is not to call a top but to mark that market structure has become unstable and that keeping the same exposure is no longer reasonable.
2. Late‑cycle euphoria – during strong uptrends, price can keep rising while LSRI gradually shifts into Vigilance or Stress. This highlights elevated fragility even when the narrative is still bullish.
3. Repair after crisis – after a panic, LSRI often stays in Stress or Critical longer than the headlines, then slowly steps back through Vigilance into Normal. This helps avoid re‑entering too early while structure is still fragile.
| Strategy | Return | Max Drawdown |
|---|---|---|
| Buy & Hold BTC | 210% | -73% |
| BTC with LSRI Risk Filter | 168% | -32% |
LSRI is used as a structural risk overlay (reduce or exit exposure when regime is Stress or Critical), not as a trading signal. Lower return with much lower drawdown is the intended outcome. Figures above are illustrative; full validation is in the transitions and forward returns below.
This page separates two things: stored regime transitions and recent live regime memory. If the public transition history is still sparse after a deployment or storage reset, the tables can stay in bootstrap mode while the regime memory below keeps updating from the live system. Together they show both the moments where structure changed and the recent persistence of that structure. Public history fills automatically as more regime transitions occur, so a sparse view should be read as an early-stage record, not as a broken page.
| Asset | Transitions | Stress / Critical | Avg 7d | Avg 30d | Worst 30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Actif | Date | Changement de régime | Prix | Rendement 7j | Rendement 30j |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impossible de charger l’historique public pour le moment. | |||||
LSRI ne prédit pas la direction du prix. Il détecte quand la structure du marché crypto passe d’un état sain à un état fragile. Historiquement, les transitions en Stress et Critique peuvent être suivies d’une volatilité plus élevée et de reculs, mais le but est la conscience du risque et la gestion de l’exposition, pas le timing exact des trades. Cette page est un registre public de transitions, pas un outil de calendrier ni un conseil en investissement.
Besoin seulement du journal brut du signal public ? Ouvrez Signaux LSRI historiques.