Track Record

Historical transitions of LSRI regimes. This page does not predict price or call bottoms. It simply tracks how past LSRI shifts from healthy to fragile structure were followed by market moves over time.

How LSRI behaves in real markets

1. Stress spikes – when LSRI moves from Normal or Vigilance into Stress or Critical, the goal is not to call a top but to mark that market structure has become unstable and that keeping the same exposure is no longer reasonable.

2. Late‑cycle euphoria – during strong uptrends, price can keep rising while LSRI gradually shifts into Vigilance or Stress. This highlights elevated fragility even when the narrative is still bullish.

3. Repair after crisis – after a panic, LSRI often stays in Stress or Critical longer than the headlines, then slowly steps back through Vigilance into Normal. This helps avoid re‑entering too early while structure is still fragile.

Impact of the LSRI Risk Filter
Illustrative comparison on BTC over the same period. LSRI filter = reduce exposure when regime is Stress or Critical.
Strategy Return Max Drawdown
Buy & Hold BTC 210% -73%
BTC with LSRI Risk Filter 168% -32%

LSRI is used as a structural risk overlay (reduce or exit exposure when regime is Stress or Critical), not as a trading signal. Lower return with much lower drawdown is the intended outcome. Figures above are illustrative; full validation is in the transitions and forward returns below.

Live LSRI system snapshot
Loading the current engine, market state, and available regime memory from the live system.
Active engine
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Current strongest signal
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Regime memory coverage
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Latest live snapshot
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Total Transitions
Across tracked assets
Stress / Critical Transitions
Share of all transitions
Avg 7d Return After Stress
Negative 7d follow-through
Avg 30d Return After Stress
Only when enough future history exists
Latest Tracked Transition
Most recent regime change
Transition Coverage
Assets with at least one recorded transition

This page separates two things: stored regime transitions and recent live regime memory. If the public transition history is still sparse after a deployment or storage reset, the tables can stay in bootstrap mode while the regime memory below keeps updating from the live system. Together they show both the moments where structure changed and the recent persistence of that structure. Public history fills automatically as more regime transitions occur, so a sparse view should be read as an early-stage record, not as a broken page.

Filter The Public Track Record
Focus on one asset or isolate only the highest-risk LSRI transitions. The cards, timeline, and table below update together.
Asset
Transition Type
Regime Memory
Recent regime memory by asset. This is a compact read of how LSRI behaved day after day, not only when transitions occurred.
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Normal Vigilance Stress Critical
Colored segments show how long each asset spent in each regime over the selected 30-day or 90-day window.
Visual Transition Timeline
Most recent regime changes by asset. The goal is not to score every day, but to highlight the dates where LSRI actually changed state, because those are the events that matter most for public validation.
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Comment lire cette page
Le but n’est pas de scorer chaque jour, mais de regarder les moments où le régime a changé et de mesurer ce qui a suivi.
Étape 1
Repérer les transitions
Nous marquons les dates où LSRI a changé de régime. Ce sont ces événements que l’on compare ensuite à ce que le prix a fait.
Étape 2
Mesurer le suivi
Pour chaque transition, nous regardons 7 et 30 jours de bourse plus tard pour voir comment le prix s’est comporté une fois que le régime avait déjà basculé.
Étape 3
Comparer par actif
BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP et DOGE ne propagent pas le stress de la même façon. Le profil ci‑dessous montre quels actifs ont historiquement vu le stress aller plus vite ou plus profond.
Asset Transition Profile
Full-dataset summary by asset. This profile updates with the current filters.
Asset Transitions Stress / Critical Avg 7d Avg 30d Worst 30d
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Signaux LSRI historiques
Les transitions de régime sont plus informatives que des instantanés quotidiens. Les rendements ne sont affichés que lorsqu’il existe assez d’historique futur.
Actif Date Changement de régime Prix Rendement 7j Rendement 30j
Impossible de charger l’historique public pour le moment.

LSRI ne prédit pas la direction du prix. Il détecte quand la structure du marché crypto passe d’un état sain à un état fragile. Historiquement, les transitions en Stress et Critique peuvent être suivies d’une volatilité plus élevée et de reculs, mais le but est la conscience du risque et la gestion de l’exposition, pas le timing exact des trades. Cette page est un registre public de transitions, pas un outil de calendrier ni un conseil en investissement.

Besoin seulement du journal brut du signal public ? Ouvrez Signaux LSRI historiques.