Historical case studies showing how the regime behaved before and after major stress events. These are illustrative; LSRI does not predict price or call bottoms.
SOL price moved from about $32 (early Nov) to a low near $8 (late Dec). The structural regime had already shifted to elevated stress before the FTX shock became headline news.
Lead time: LSRI flagged critical regime in the run-up to the collapse, giving a structural early warning rather than a reaction to the event itself.
Interpretation: Regime monitoring highlighted deteriorating structure ahead of the crisis. This is not a prediction of FTX; it is an example of how structural stress can show up in the signal before the full market impact.
BTC had already declined from cycle highs (~$69k Nov 2021) toward the $16k–$17k zone by late 2022. LSRI showed a multi-step deterioration: from Vigilance into Stress, then Critical, as structure weakened over time.
Lead time: The regime shifted over several weeks, giving users time to adjust exposure as the market moved from “building stress” to “high structural risk.”
Interpretation: This illustrates regime escalation rather than a single event. The 2022 bear was a period where LSRI’s stress and critical states aligned with sustained downside and high volatility.
BTC fell from around $7k (Nov 2018) to roughly $3.2k (Dec 2018). LSRI entered stress regime in the weeks before the worst of the selloff.
Lead time: Stress regime appeared with roughly 3–4 weeks of lead before the December low, consistent with the idea of structural deterioration preceding the final leg down.
Interpretation: A classic example of regime shift before a major low. LSRI is built to flag when structure becomes fragile; it does not call the exact bottom, but it can signal when risk is elevated.
These case studies are for context and credibility only. They are not investment advice, and past regime behavior does not guarantee future results. LSRI is a structural risk monitoring layer—use it as one input among many in your own process.