LSRI · Structural risk monitoring — not investment advice

LSRI Research — Historical case studies

How the structural regime evolved before major stress episodes. Illustrative ex post analysis — not price prediction.

Normal Vigilance Stress Critical

Case 1 — SOL & FTX collapse (Nov 2022)

  • Period: Oct – Dec 2022 · SOL from ~$32 toward ~$8
  • Signal: Critical before headline FTX shock
  • Read: Structural stress rose ahead of the liquidity break — early warning, not an event forecast
Extended narrative

The regime had already shifted to elevated stress before FTX dominated headlines. LSRI highlights deteriorating structure in the run-up; it does not predict exchange failures.

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Case 2 — Crypto winter 2022 (BTC)

  • Period: Sep – Dec 2022 · BTC toward $16k–$17k zone
  • Signal: Vigilance → Stress → Critical
  • Read: Multi-week regime escalation — time to review exposure before the November washout
Extended narrative

Unlike a single headline shock, 2022 showed gradual deterioration from Vigilance into Stress and Critical as structure weakened through the bear.

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Case 3 — 2018 bear market (ETH)

  • Period: Nov – Dec 2018 · ETH from ~$220 toward ~$85
  • Signal: Stress ~3–4 weeks before the December low
  • Read: Classic regime shift before capitulation — flags fragility, not the exact bottom
Extended narrative

Stress appeared in the weeks before the worst of the selloff, consistent with structural deterioration preceding the final leg down.

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Rigorous methodology

LSRI research combines structural liquidity metrics and non-linear dynamics to frame regime transitions — published alongside public backtests and audit artefacts.

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Case studies are for context and credibility only. Not investment advice. Past regime behaviour does not guarantee future results.